Explore Pirates vs Brewers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 8/11/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On August 11, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates clash at American Family Field for the first game of their series. The Brewers currently hold a strong record of 73-44, while the Pirates sit at 51-68, struggling this season. In their last outing, the Brewers edged out the Pirates with a close 7-6 victory, further solidifying their place in the standings.

Milwaukee’s Jose Quintana will take the mound, boasting a respectable 3.57 ERA this season, although advanced metrics suggest he may be due for regression. Quintana’s ability to limit walks, projected at 1.9 today, could be pivotal against a Pirates offense that ranks as the 30th worst in MLB. This matchup plays to Quintana’s strengths, as he faces a Pittsburgh lineup that has the 6th most strikeouts in baseball.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney, with a 4.77 ERA and a projected 4.9 innings today, will try to hold back a Brewers offense that ranks 3rd in team batting average. The projections indicate that Heaney might struggle, allowing 2.9 earned runs and 5.2 hits on average. Given his low strikeout rate, he may find it challenging to navigate through a lineup that seldom strikes out.

Both teams’ bullpens tell a similar story; the Brewers rank 8th overall, while the Pirates are 29th, indicating a significant potential advantage for Milwaukee late in the game. With a high implied team total of 5.25 runs for the Brewers, they are poised to capitalize on the Pirates’ struggles, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to back the favorite in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2.1 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Joey Bart is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Jose Quintana has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-185)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 64 games (+30.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 102 games (+18.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Isaac Collins has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 51% ROI)