Explore Orioles vs Pirates Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/05/2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to league average, Chris Bassitt has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an extra 3.9 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Taylor Ward tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jake Mangum is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 147 games (+25.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 108 games (+24.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)