
Atlanta Braves
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Miami Marlins
-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Grant Holmes ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Atlanta Braves – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Agustin Ramirez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Heriberto Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 24 away games (+17.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)Austin Riley has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)
