Player Prop Bets for Reds vs Blue Jays – September 25th, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Toronto Blue Jays

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Nick Lodolo projects to average 16.8 outs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under Total Bases
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• José Soriano – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Soriano has relied on his non-fastballs 6.6% more often this season (49.1%) than he did last season (42.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brett Bateman – Over/Under Hits
  Brett Bateman is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cincinnati (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)