Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Rays vs Red Sox Match Preview – June 11, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the American League East. The Red Sox currently sit at 33-36, struggling through a below-average season, while the Rays hold a better record at 36-31, showcasing a more competitive edge. In their last matchup, the Red Sox managed to secure a victory against the Rays, winning 3-1, which may provide them with a much-needed boost.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start Walker Buehler, who has had a tumultuous season. Buehler is currently ranked #165 among starting pitchers in MLB, indicating a disappointing performance overall, with a 4-4 record and a 5.18 ERA. His last outing saw him struggle significantly, allowing five earned runs in just two innings. However, the projections suggest he may be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP of 4.13 hints at potential improvement.

Zack Littell, starting for the Rays, has been solid this season, holding a 6-5 record and a more respectable 3.68 ERA. Despite being a below-average pitcher overall, Littell’s last start was impressive, as he allowed just one earned run over six innings. He faces a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in MLB, which should present an interesting challenge for him.

Betting markets indicate a close matchup, with the Red Sox favored at -125 and an implied team total of 4.92 runs. Given the stark contrast in the two pitchers’ recent performances and the Red Sox’s strong offensive capabilities, this game could be pivotal for Boston as they look to build momentum.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zack Littell must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 61.5% of the time, grading out in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Boston’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jake Mangum, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.9 mph this year (93.2 mph) below where it was last season (95.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Abraham Toro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Abraham Toro is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.46 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Taylor Walls has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)