Discover the Tigers vs Red Sox Game Time – September 27, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on September 27, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Red Sox, sporting an 88-72 record, are looking to solidify their position while the Tigers, at 86-74, are trying to keep pace in the chase for a Wild Card spot. In their last matchup, the Red Sox emerged victorious, winning decisively with a score of 7-2, showcasing their potent offense.

On the mound, Boston is projected to start Connelly Early, a left-handed pitcher who has impressed this season with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.91 FIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform even better moving forward. His high strikeout rate of 37.3% could be advantageous against a Tigers lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 5th in MLB in that category. Early is projected to allow an average of 2.0 earned runs today, which bodes well for the Red Sox.

In contrast, Detroit will counter with Chris Paddack, a right-handed pitcher struggling this season with a 5.27 ERA and a disappointing 5-11 Win/Loss record. Paddack’s projections suggest he will allow an average of 2.7 earned runs while striking out just 3.4 batters, placing him at a disadvantage against a Red Sox offense that ranks 8th overall and 5th in team batting average.

The Red Sox bullpen also stands out, ranked 4th in MLB, offering a significant advantage in late-game situations. With their strong recent performance, including contributions from their best hitters, Boston looks poised to capitalize on Detroit’s pitching woes and maintain their momentum in this critical late-season series.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has relied on his secondary pitches 6% less often this year (51.1%) than he did last year (57.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Boston’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Torkelson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Among every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under Hits
  Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.