Discover the Tigers vs Red Sox Game Time – September 27, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox

As September winds down, the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers face off once again at Fenway Park on September 27, 2025, in the second game of their series following a tight contest where the Red Sox edged out the Tigers 4-3. Both teams are in the playoff picture, with Boston holding an 88-72 record, while Detroit sits at 86-74.

In this matchup, the Red Sox will send Connelly Early to the mound. Early, a left-handed pitcher, boasts an impressive 1.88 ERA and is ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today, he’s known for racking up strikeouts, reflected in his high 37.3% strikeout rate. This could be advantageous against the Tigers, who have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. On the other hand, the Tigers plan to start Keider Montero, whose 4.48 ERA and mediocre rankings suggest he has struggled this season, and his recent performance was less than stellar, having allowed 3 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start.

Offensively, the Red Sox have performed well, ranking 9th in MLB, including a stellar 4th in team batting average. Their lineup will challenge Montero, especially considering that the Tigers rank 12th in offense but lack the same level of consistency. The projections indicate a solid matchup for the Red Sox, who have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs for today’s game.

Given the disparity in starting pitching and offensive strength, Boston appears well-positioned to extend their winning streak and capitalize on their recent form, making them a strong option for bettors looking to back the home team in this pivotal late-season clash.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Keider Montero has utilized his sinker 12.8% more often this season (20.5%) than he did last year (7.7%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Connelly Early.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Connelly Early – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Over his last 3 outings, Connelly Early has posted a monstrous 22 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Boston Red Sox today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+13.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+13.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 20 away games (+16.55 Units / 36% ROI)