Discover the Tigers vs Red Sox Game Time – September 26, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on September 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, with the Red Sox sitting at 87-72 and the Tigers at 86-73. This matchup is significant as it marks the first game of their series, and both teams are looking to solidify their standings as they vie for a Wild Card spot. The game is set against the backdrop of both teams having above-average seasons.

In their most recent game, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 8th in MLB this season. Their lineup has produced a robust .265 batting average, placing them 4th in the league, which bodes well against a Tigers pitching staff that has been average overall. The projections indicate that the Red Sox should have a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, capitalizing on their strong offensive metrics.

On the mound, Kyle Harrison is projected to start for the Red Sox. Despite being ranked as the 177th best starting pitcher in MLB, his ERA of 3.58 suggests potential for a solid outing. However, his projections indicate he might struggle with allowing 4.9 hits and 2.6 earned runs over an average of 4.8 innings. In contrast, Casey Mize of the Tigers, while considered an average pitcher with a 3.91 ERA, has a more favorable Win/Loss record of 14-6 this season, which could give the Tigers an edge.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Red Sox ranking 4th and the Tigers 9th in MLB. This could play a crucial role late in the game, especially if the score remains close. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in taking the Red Sox, given their offensive capabilities and the potential vulnerabilities in the Tigers’ pitching staff.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Casey Mize’s 94-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decline from last season’s 95.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Spencer Torkelson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 98.4-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Kyle Harrison has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.317) provides evidence that Alex Bregman has had positive variance on his side this year with his .358 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 72 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 138 games (+10.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)