
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Washington Nationals
-255O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+215
(-110/-110)+215
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Emmet Sheehan’s 2437.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) implies that Freddie Freeman has been lucky since the start of last season with his .366 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Miles Mikolas has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 7.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Joey Wiemer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Joey Wiemer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Brady House has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games at home (+12.72 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 55 away games (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)
