
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Washington Nationals
-275O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+235
(-110/-110)+235
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Emmet Sheehan’s 2437.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 84th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) implies that Freddie Freeman has been lucky since the start of last season with his .366 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Miles Mikolas has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)James Wood’s 16% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) is in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Brady House has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games at home (+12.72 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 55 away games (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-185)Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.55 Units / 17% ROI)
