Discover the Game Location for D-Backs vs Cubs – Saturday, May 2, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Ryne Nelson has recorded 12.8 outs per start this year, grading out in the 11th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Shota Imanaga has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.9% less often this season (42.8%) than he did last season (48.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.274) implies that Miguel Amaya has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .341 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+18.60 Units / 207% ROI)