
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Chicago Cubs
+140O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Ryne Nelson has recorded 12.8 outs per start this year, grading out in the 11th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+260/-370)Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Shota Imanaga has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.9% less often this season (42.8%) than he did last season (48.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Seiya Suzuki is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
