Discover the Braves vs D-Backs Game Time – April 27, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on April 27, 2025, in what promises to be an engaging matchup. After a thrilling contest yesterday where the Braves edged the Diamondbacks 8-7, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths. The D-Backs enter this game with a solid record of 14-13, marking a strong start to the season, while the Braves sit at 12-14, struggling to find their footing.

Brandon Pfaadt is projected to take the mound for Arizona, looking to continue his impressive form. With a 4-1 record and a standout ERA of 2.73, Pfaadt has shown he can perform at a high level. However, the projections suggest he may face challenges, as he averages 5.7 hits and 1.3 walks allowed per game, raising concerns about his consistency. Conversely, Spencer Schwellenbach, with a 1-1 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.56, is regarded as one of the top pitchers in baseball, currently ranked 18th. Both pitchers have similar innings projections, but Schwellenbach’s track record suggests he may have an edge.

Offensively, the D-Backs boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, particularly excelling in the power department with the 4th most home runs this season. The Braves, while ranked 12th overall, have shown power as well, placing 8th in home runs. However, Atlanta’s 20th ranked bullpen may be a point of concern, particularly against a D-Backs offense that is adept at capitalizing on every scoring opportunity.

The D-Backs have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, while the Braves are projected slightly higher at 4.40. Given the current odds and the D-Backs’ potential to outperform their average, this matchup is shaping up to be a close contest. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, indicating a game worth watching as both teams seek to shake off yesterday’s result.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.5% less often this season (53.6%) than he did last season (64.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Atlanta Braves (21.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (92.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Arizona’s 90.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)