
Detroit Tigers
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Baltimore Orioles
+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-125
(-110/-110)-125
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Wenceel Perez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Trevor Rogers has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.1 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Blaze Alexander has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 11.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to his 20.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-130)The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Kevin McGonigle has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
