Discover the Best Player Props for Rays vs Twins – 7/4/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Minnesota Twins

On July 4, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Target Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Twins, currently sitting at 41-46, are struggling this season and find themselves in the lower tier of the American League standings. Meanwhile, the Rays are enjoying a solid campaign with a record of 48-39, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the league.

In their last outing, the Twins faced a tough opponent but managed to keep the game close, showcasing their resilience despite their below-average season. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Chris Paddack for the Twins and Zack Littell for the Rays. Paddack, ranked as the 157th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rough year with a 3-7 record and a 4.70 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs while striking out 3.7 batters. This season, Paddack has struggled with hits, projected to allow 6.1 per game.

On the other hand, Zack Littell has been performing reasonably well, with a 7-7 record and a solid 3.61 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters. However, his xFIP indicates that he might be due for a downturn in performance.

Offensively, the Twins rank 21st in MLB, struggling particularly in batting average at 23rd, while the Rays boast the 7th best offense and rank 2nd in team batting average. This disparity could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. The Twins have a high implied team total of 4.81 runs, indicating some optimism among bettors despite their current struggles. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup as these two teams vie for an early edge in the series.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Zack Littell’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.6% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Matt Wallner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.6° figure is among the highest in the league this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 away games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 74% ROI)