Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Red Sox vs D-Backs – 9/6/25

Boston Red Sox

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Boston Red Sox on September 6, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a crucial Interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at a .500 record of 71-71, are aiming to improve their standing, while the Red Sox are in a better position at 78-64, reflecting an above-average season. In their most recent outing, the Red Sox suffered a tough loss to the Diamondbacks, who showcased their powerful offense.

On the mound, Arizona is set to start Brandon Pfaadt, whose mixed season has seen him compile a 12-8 record with a 5.33 ERA, ranking him as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Pfaadt has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.07 xFIP suggests he could perform better moving forward. However, he faces a challenge against a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts.

Conversely, Boston will counter with Lucas Giolito, who has had a solid season with a 3.38 ERA and a 10-2 record. Although his projections suggest he might be due for a regression, Giolito has demonstrated the ability to limit runs effectively. However, as a high-flyball pitcher (36% flyball rate), he might be vulnerable against the Diamondbacks, who rank 4th in MLB with 196 home runs this season.

The Diamondbacks’ offense, ranked 5th overall, will look to capitalize on Giolito’s flyball tendencies. Given their recent performance and a high implied team total of 4.45 runs for this matchup, Arizona appears to have the edge, even in a tightly contested game, as the betting markets reflect a close contest with the Diamondbacks’ moneyline at -105. With both teams battling to solidify their standings, the stakes are high as they face off in this exciting matchup at Chase Field.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Lucas Giolito has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed bats in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Trevor Story has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s 2567-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 98th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Corbin Carroll has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.9-mph to 95.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games at home (+15.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.80 Units / 31% ROI)