Detailed Player Insights for Tigers vs Mariners - 10/4/2025

+160O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-185

Troy Melton – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Troy Melton’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2187 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2242 rpm).
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers bats jointly grade out 7th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.5% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
George Kirby has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-185)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games at home (+17.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.22 Units / 18% ROI)
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+240/-335)
Spencer Torkelson has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 47% ROI)

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