Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-135
On April 29, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Mets enter this game with a strong 20-9 record, riding high after a dominant 19-5 victory in their last game against the Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks sit at 15-13, coming off a narrow 6-4 win against the San Diego Padres.
As the season progresses, the Mets are showing signs of a great year, but their offense ranks just 17th in MLB, indicating potential room for improvement. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in the league, highlighted by their impressive power—ranking 4th in home runs with 40 this season. This matchup pits the Mets’ left-handed pitcher David Peterson against the Diamondbacks’ Eduardo Rodriguez, also a lefty. Peterson has an ERA of 3.29, but his xERA of 4.36 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has a 4.40 ERA, but his xFIP of 2.82 indicates he could be due for a bounce-back performance.
While both pitchers have their strengths, Peterson’s high groundball rate of 56% could serve him well against a Diamondbacks lineup that thrives on power. Conversely, Rodriguez’s high strikeout rate of 27.6% may struggle against a Mets offense that has the 6th fewest strikeouts in MLB.
With the Mets favored at -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they will look to capitalize on their home field advantage. However, the Diamondbacks’ potent offense could make them a challenging opponent. As the teams clash, all eyes will be on how the matchups unfold.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+115)Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pavin Smith stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that David Peterson will average a total of 2.1 singles in this outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)Extreme groundball hitters like Starling Marte tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)The 5th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)Pavin Smith has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)