Check the Weather for Tigers vs Padres Game – 9/04/2024

Detroit Tigers

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on September 4, 2024, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this interleague matchup. Currently, the Padres hold a solid 79-61 record and are in a strong position to secure a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Tigers sit at 70-69, having recently lost to the Padres 3-0 in their last outing on September 2, where the Padres showcased their pitching prowess.

Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for the Padres, and he enters this game with a 4-3 record and an impressive 3.20 ERA this season. Despite some indications that he may have been a bit lucky, his performance remains above average, ranking him 72nd among approximately 350 pitchers. Darvish has been effective at limiting earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.1 earned runs on average against a Tigers offense that ranks 24th in MLB.

On the other side, Keider Montero is slated to start for the Tigers. With a 4-6 record and a 5.17 ERA, Montero has struggled this season, and his underlying metrics suggest he could be due for improvement. However, he faces a daunting task against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in batting average and 8th in overall offensive performance.

The projections favor the Padres significantly, with a high implied team total of 4.68 runs, while the Tigers are projected to score only 3.32 runs. With a strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB and their recent victory still fresh in mind, the Padres are poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their winning ways against a Tigers team that has not found its rhythm offensively.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Keider Montero has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Spencer Torkelson has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .220 rate is inflated compared to his .177 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Detroit Tigers have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trey Sweeney, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Jace Jung, Riley Greene).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Yu Darvish’s four-seam fastball rate has jumped by 5.4% from last year to this one (16.7% to 22.1%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Colt Keith has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)