
Toronto Blue Jays
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Chicago Cubs
+105O/U: 7
(-115/-105)-125
(-115/-105)-125
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Kevin Gausman has averaged 92.8 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 81st percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+105)The Toronto Blue Jays projected lineup projects as the 3rd-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Ben Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ben Brown in the 89th percentile among all starters in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)
