Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-180
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on September 9, 2024, they find themselves in a tight race with their record standing at 82-61, while the Royals are just behind at 79-65. Both teams are pushing for playoff positioning, making this matchup crucial for their respective postseason aspirations. In their last outing, the Yankees suffered a narrow defeat to the Chicago Cubs, losing 2-1, while the Royals celebrated a strong 2-0 shutout against the Minnesota Twins.
Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, and despite a recent loss, he showcased strong potential in his previous start, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run and striking out 11 batters. Rodon’s high strikeout rate (26.8 K%) will face a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone lineup in MLB. This matchup could tilt in favor of Kansas City if Rodon struggles to capitalize on his strength.
On the other side, Brady Singer is slated to start for the Royals. While his ERA of 3.35 is impressive, his xERA suggests he might be due for regression. The Yankees, boasting the 1st best offense in MLB, will look to exploit any weaknesses Singer may show, especially given their power ranking of 2nd in home runs this season.
The leading MLB projection system sees the Yankees as significant favorites, with an implied team total of 4.81 runs. The projections indicate a strong likelihood that New York will capitalize on their offensive prowess to secure a vital win in this important series opener.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Compared to the average starter, Brady Singer has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.4 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kansas City’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Carlos Rodon’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (50.8% compared to 39.6% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Despite posting a .469 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has had positive variance on his side given the .044 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .425.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 96 games (+21.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 141 games (+8.24 Units / 4% ROI)
- Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+10.60 Units / 96% ROI)