Check Out the Live Stream Details for Brewers vs Mets – Thursday, July 03, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 3, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup at Citi Field. The Mets enter the game with a solid 49-38 record, positioning themselves as contenders this season, while the Brewers are closely behind at 48-38. With both teams playing well, this series has significant implications for their standings.

In their most recent game, the Mets managed to secure a victory against the Brewers, setting the stage for a competitive rematch today. The Mets are projected to start David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher with a 5-4 record and an impressive 3.30 ERA this season, indicating that he has been effective on the mound. However, projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 4.18 xERA points to potential regression. Peterson’s ability to strike out an average of 5.0 batters per game will be crucial against the Brewers’ offense, which has struggled at times this season.

Jose Quintana will take the mound for the Brewers. Although he has a commendable 6-2 record, his 3.30 ERA masks some underlying struggles, as his 4.83 xFIP reveals he may also be due for some negative regression. Quintana’s high walk rate of 10.5% could present an opportunity for the Mets’ aggressive offense, which ranks 7th in MLB, to capitalize on free passes, especially given their ranking of 6th in the league in walks drawn.

As the Mets face an average implied team total of 4.39 runs, the expectations are high for their offense to continue exploiting Quintana’s control issues. With both teams committed to battling for every win, this matchup is set to be a thrilling chapter in their season.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a significant advantage over flyball batters, Jose Quintana and his 44.5% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today’s matchup going up against 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Caleb Durbin’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 79.4-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. David Peterson has used his secondary pitches 5.1% more often this season (47.6%) than he did last year (42.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Tyrone Taylor, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)