Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Yankees vs Dodgers – 5/31/25

New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the New York Yankees on May 31, 2025, both teams are showcasing impressive seasons, with the Dodgers holding a record of 35-22 and the Yankees slightly ahead at 35-21. After their most recent matchup, where the Dodgers won 8-5, this game marks the second in their series, adding an extra layer of intensity to the rivalry.

The Dodgers will send Landon Knack to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season thus far, posting a 2-2 record with a 5.22 ERA. However, Knack’s 4.04 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky and could improve moving forward. Unfortunately for him, he’s facing a Yankees offense that has been nothing short of explosive, ranking 1st in MLB with 92 home runs.

Will Warren, also a right-handed pitcher, takes the mound for the Yankees. With a more favorable 3-2 record and a 4.09 ERA, Warren has shown promise, though his projection suggests he might also struggle against the Dodgers’ potent lineup, ranked 2nd in MLB for runs scored and 1st in batting average.

The projections indicate that the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.69 runs, while the Yankees come in even higher at 4.81 runs. With both offenses firing on all cylinders, this game is set to be a high-scoring affair, reflected by a game total of 9.5 runs. With a strong home opportunity, the Dodgers look to capitalize on their offensive prowess while attempting to exploit Warren’s vulnerabilities. Expect an exciting matchup as both teams aim to assert their dominance in this marquee interleague showdown.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Due to his large platoon split, Will Warren has a tough challenge being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jasson Dominguez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.333 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .347 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Landon Knack has produced a significant jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2408 rpm over the entire season to 2477 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme groundball bats like Max Muncy tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Will Warren.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers hitters collectively grade out 4th- in the league for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.02 Units / 23% ROI)
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Max Muncy has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)