Brewers vs Pirates Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday September 05, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 5, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Pirates, sitting at 64-77, have struggled this season and are currently far from playoff contention. In contrast, the Brewers are thriving with an impressive 86-55 record, positioning themselves well in the National League Central.

Most recently, the Pirates have showcased some offensive struggles, ranking 29th in MLB, particularly with their inability to hit home runs, coming in dead last with just 102 this season. Their best hitter has played well recently, boasting a .500 batting average over the last week, but the team as a whole is still finding it hard to generate consistent scoring.

The Brewers, on the other hand, have the 9th best offense in the league and are particularly effective at getting on base, leading to their high scoring potential. Their best hitter has also been in good form, hitting .400 with a 1.350 OPS over his last six games.

On the mound, Johan Oviedo is projected to start for the Pirates, with his 3.60 ERA this season indicating decent performance, even if his advanced stats rank him as the 134th best starter in MLB. However, he faces a daunting challenge against Brewers’ Quinn Priester, who has a stellar 3.28 ERA and a 11-2 record this year. Priester’s ability to induce ground balls will serve him well against a Pirates lineup that lacks power.

The odds currently favor the Brewers with a moneyline of -150, implying they are expected to win this matchup against the underdog Pirates, who are at +130. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. With both teams’ current form and pitching matchups, expect the Brewers to continue their strong run in this early September clash.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball bats, Quinn Priester and his 53.5% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Joey Bart has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats jointly rank near the cellar of the league this year ( 10th-worst) when assessing their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 78 games (+22.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 107 games (+28.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 58% ROI)