Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)-135
The Chicago Cubs will host the Toronto Blue Jays in an Interleague matchup at Wrigley Field on August 16, 2024. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Cubs sitting at 59-63 and the Blue Jays at 57-64, each having below-average performances. The Cubs are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who is having a rough year with a 3-10 record and a dreadful ERA of 6.60. However, he did pitch well in his last start on August 5, going six innings with just two earned runs.
On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Yariel Rodriguez, who has a solid ERA of 3.53 but carries a 1-5 record. Rodriguez pitched impressively in his last outing, allowing only one earned run over six innings on August 10. The matchup presents an interesting dynamic: Hendricks is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Blue Jays offense that has the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB, while Rodriguez, known for his high walk rate, will face a Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in walks.
Despite their struggles, projections indicate that the Cubs are more likely to capitalize on Rodriguez’s command issues. The Cubs’ offense ranks 21st overall but has shown some potential with Ian Happ leading the way as their best hitter. The projections suggest the Cubs will score an impressive 5.99 runs in this game, while the Blue Jays are projected to score 5.97 runs. With the Cubs’ implied team total sitting high at 5.02 runs, they may just find a way to edge out the Blue Jays in a close contest.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Among all starting pitchers, Yariel Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate of 2399 rpm is in the 82nd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Kyle Hendricks has averaged 14.4 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 10th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Pete Crow-Armstrong has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .256 figure is quite a bit lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- It may be best to expect positive regression for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 113 games (+10.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.25 Units / 31% ROI)