Betting Odds and Bets for Brewers vs Pirates – 9/25/24

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off on September 25, 2024, the stakes are high for the Brewers, who are enjoying a strong season with a 90-67 record. They are currently in the hunt for a playoff spot, while the Pirates, with a 73-84 record, are out of contention. This National League Central matchup at PNC Park is the second game in the series, with the Brewers having taken the first game.

The Pirates will send Luis Ortiz to the mound. Ortiz, a right-hander, has a solid 3.43 ERA this season, but his 4.64 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. His win/loss record stands at 6-6 over 17 starts, and while he has shown flashes of brilliance, he has also struggled with control, allowing an average of 2.0 walks per game.

For the Brewers, Freddy Peralta takes the hill. Peralta, ranked as the 29th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a reliable arm for Milwaukee. With a 3.69 ERA and an 11-8 record, he has consistently delivered for the Brewers. His high strikeout rate (27.4 K%) could pose a significant challenge for the Pirates’ offense, which ranks 4th in the league for most strikeouts.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 28th in overall offense and 26th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers boast the 10th-best offense in the league, supported by a good batting average and strong base-running capabilities, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Rhys Hoskins has been a standout performer for Milwaukee recently, with a 1.140 OPS over the last week.

Both sportsbooks and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favor the Brewers in this matchup, projecting them with a 57% chance to win. With the Pirates’ implied win probability sitting at 42%, bettors might find value in backing Pittsburgh, especially if Ortiz can outperform his projections and the Pirates’ bats come alive.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Freddy Peralta’s curveball utilization has decreased by 5.7% from last year to this one (12.5% to 6.8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 85.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 83.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s 94.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 95.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Billy Cook – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Billy Cook is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a unit grade out 9th- in the game for power this year when using their 30.4% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or greater.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 75 away games (+9.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games (+19.90 Units / 80% ROI)