Bets and Betting Tips for Phillies vs Guardians – May 09, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 9, 2025, both teams come into this interleague matchup with identical records of 22-15, showcasing their competitive spirits. The Guardians recently celebrated a thrilling 8-6 victory over the Kansas City Royals on May 7, while the Phillies edged out the New York Mets with a 7-6 win on the same day, setting the stage for an exciting clash at Progressive Field.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Gavin Williams, who has had a mixed season thus far. With a 2-2 record and an ERA of 5.06, he has struggled with walks, boasting a 13.0 BB% that could pose problems against a patient Phillies offense that ranks 5th in the league in walks. However, his xFIP of 3.98 suggests he may be due for a turnaround, potentially making him a threat if he can harness his control.

Aaron Nola, on the other hand, will take the hill for the Phillies. Although his record stands at 1-5, his 4.61 ERA is supported by a more favorable xFIP of 3.27, indicating that he has been the victim of some bad luck. Nola’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched six innings of shutout ball against the Mets, striking out eight batters and allowing only four hits.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 17th overall in MLB, which is considered average, while the Phillies boast a stronger 9th place ranking, indicating a more potent lineup. With both teams displaying solid performances recently, this matchup promises to be closely contested, especially given the low Game Total of 7.5 runs. Betting markets indicate a tight contest, with the Guardians currently at +100 on the moneyline, reflecting their potential to pull off a win against the odds.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Aaron Nola has relied on his change-up 6.1% more often this season (15.7%) than he did last year (9.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kyle Schwarber has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.4% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Gavin Williams’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  This season, Daniel Schneemann has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.6 mph compared to last year’s 90.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145/+115)
  Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 37% ROI)