Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
(-115/-105)+115
On May 7, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers host the Houston Astros at American Family Field in a pivotal Interleague matchup. With both teams hovering around .500, the stakes are high as they vie for momentum in a competitive season. The Brewers enter this game with a record of 19-18, while the Astros are slightly behind at 17-18. Recently, the Brewers have not fared well, dropping yesterday’s contest to the Astros, and now look to bounce back.
Quinn Priester, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee. While he boasts a 1-0 record this season, his 5.79 ERA indicates significant struggles, despite a more favorable xFIP of 5.08. Interestingly, Priester’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, which would be a positive for the Brewers. However, his tendency to allow an average of 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks may spell trouble against Houston’s lineup.
Framber Valdez, the Astros’ left-handed starter, comes into this game with a 1-4 record and an ERA of 4.39. His performances have been a mixed bag, but a lower xFIP of 3.62 suggests he may have been unlucky. Valdez’s projections show he will likely pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, a promising sign for Houston.
Both offenses have struggled this season, ranking 21st and 20th respectively in MLB. Yet, the Brewers are armed with a potent running game, ranking 2nd in stolen bases, which could be pivotal against an Astros team sitting 24th in that category. With betting markets giving Milwaukee a +110 moneyline and Houston at -130, this matchup appears to be tightly contested, reinforcing the notion that the Brewers might outperform expectations today.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)Framber Valdez performed well in his previous outing and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 86.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 79.9-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Quinn Priester and his 51.7% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this game squaring off against 2 opposing FB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Extreme groundball hitters like Christian Yelich tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)The Milwaukee Brewers projected offense profiles as the 4th-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.02 Units / 24% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)