Player Props Preview for Yankees vs Dodgers – 10/25/24

New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are set for an exciting Interleague showdown at Dodger Stadium on October 25, 2024. This matchup features two of the top offenses in MLB, with the Dodgers ranked 1st and the Yankees not far behind at 3rd. Both teams are strong contenders as we approach the postseason, adding extra significance to this series opener. The Dodgers, coming off a solid 10-5 win against the Mets on October 20, lead the NL West, while the Yankees are battling for the AL East crown after defeating the Guardians 5-2 in their last game.

On the mound, the Dodgers are rolling with Jack Flaherty, who has had a respectable season with a 13-7 record and a stellar 3.17 ERA. Despite his overall success, Flaherty struggled in his last outing, giving up eight earned runs over just three innings. Meanwhile, the Yankees counter with the ace-level talent of Gerrit Cole. Cole holds a solid 8-5 record and a 3.41 ERA, though his 3.99 xFIP hints at potential regression. His recent performance saw him allow six hits and four walks, yet limit the damage to just two earned runs.

The Dodgers’ power-heavy lineup, led by Shohei Ohtani, poses a significant threat to Cole, a high-flyball pitcher. This dynamic could lead to fireworks, given the Dodgers’ league-leading home run total. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a slight edge with a 52% win probability, slightly higher than their implied 54% from betting markets. With both teams projected to score over five runs, expect an intense battle as the Dodgers aim to capitalize on their home-field advantage and offensive prowess.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Gerrit Cole in the 90th percentile among all SPs in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Los Angeles’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-120)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup grades out as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+26.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 69 away games (+17.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)