Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Yankees – 9/28/24

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees

As the MLB regular season winds down, the New York Yankees, with a strong record of 93-67, aim to solidify their playoff standing when they face the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 28, 2024. The Yankees, currently enjoying a great season, are the favorites in this matchup, boasting a potent lineup ranked 3rd in offense and leading the league in home runs. They’ll look to their mainstay, Aaron Judge, who has been in exceptional form over the last week, hitting .533 with five home runs.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have had a below-average season, sitting at 75-85 and struggling offensively with a 28th-ranked attack. However, they bring their ace, Paul Skenes, to the mound, who is considered the best starting pitcher in MLB and has been a standout performer with a stellar 1.99 ERA this year. Skenes will face the challenge of containing the Yankees’ powerful bats, but his high groundball rate could neutralize some of New York’s power.

On the Yankees’ side, Luis Gil takes the mound with a strong 15-6 record and a solid 3.27 ERA. While his advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit fortunate this season, his strikeout ability could exploit a Pirates lineup prone to strikeouts.

The Yankees are slight favorites according to the betting lines, with an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a slightly lower but still favorable 54% chance of securing the win. Both teams put forth starters who project to allow low run totals, indicating a potentially tight, low-scoring affair. This game will test the Yankees’ ability to capitalize on their offensive strengths against one of the league’s elite pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2164 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2243 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  When it comes to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck this year. His 21.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively grade out 9th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 30.1% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Luis Gil has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Jasson Dominguez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)