Explore Mets vs Braves Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 9/24/24

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets square off in a key National League East matchup on September 24, 2024, at Truist Park. The Mets, currently holding an 87-69 record, are having a good season and look to clinch their spot in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Braves, with an 85-71 record, are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive in this tight division race.

The Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound, who has emerged as a strong arm this season. Ranked as the #27 best starting pitcher in MLB, Schwellenbach boasts a solid 3.61 ERA. He’s been dependable with a win/loss record of 7-7 over 19 starts, projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs on average today. While his strikeout numbers are average, his ability to limit walks will be crucial against the potent Mets lineup.

On the other hand, the Mets will counter with Luis Severino. Though Severino has a respectable 11-6 record and a 3.79 ERA, his projections for this game suggest he may struggle, with a below-average strikeout rate and high projections for both hits and walks allowed. The Braves’ offense, ranked 12th overall, will look to capitalize on these weaknesses, especially with their power, ranking 4th in home runs this season.

The Braves’ bullpen, ranked 8th, could be a decisive factor in maintaining any lead Schwellenbach might hand over. In contrast, the Mets’ bullpen is ranked 22nd, which could be a vulnerability late in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 60% chance to win, a more optimistic outlook than the implied odds of 57%. This suggests there could be value in backing the Braves as their potent offense aligns well against Severino’s less favorable projections. With a high projected run total of 5.03, the Braves are well-positioned to make a statement in this critical matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under Total Bases
  Harrison Bader’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.4-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 81.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Spencer Schwellenbach will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been lucky given the .051 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 146 games (+33.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 57% ROI)