See the Weather Forecast for Pirates vs Reds – Sunday, September 22nd, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are setting up for the third game of their series on September 22, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. Neither team is in playoff contention, with the Reds holding a 76-80 record and the Pirates at 72-83. Both sides are looking to end their seasons on a high note, and today’s pitchers might just be the spotlight.

Taking the mound for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who has been solid with a 9-4 record and an impressive 2.83 ERA this season. Despite these numbers, his 4.17 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential challenges against the Pirates. Greene’s high-strikeout skill set aligns well against a Pittsburgh lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 4th most in MLB. However, Greene’s projected performance for today—only 2.9 innings with 3.6 strikeouts—could put pressure on the Reds’ bullpen, which ranks a lowly 26th according to the Power Rankings.

Paul Skenes, on the other hand, will take the ball for the Pirates. He boasts an elite status, being ranked as the #2 starting pitcher in MLB, supported by a stellar 2.07 ERA. While his 2.64 xFIP points to some luck, his 10-3 record speaks volumes. Skenes is expected to pitch 5.5 innings today, with projections indicating he’ll allow just 2.0 earned runs.

Offensively, the Reds have an edge in power, ranking 15th in home runs, but Pittsburgh’s lineup has been struggling, holding the 27th spot in overall offensive rankings. Both Tyler Stephenson and Michael A. Taylor have been hot at the plate recently, with Stephenson posting a .471 average and Taylor a .500 average over the past week.

The projections, as noted in THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—favor the Pirates with a 57% chance of winning, suggesting potential value for bettors considering Pittsburgh’s odds. With both teams eager for a series win, look for this game to hinge on the performance of the starting pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Paul Skenes is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Bryan De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 93.9-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats jointly rank 9th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 30.5% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or harder.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Hunter Greene has relied on his slider 5.8% less often this season (34.7%) than he did last year (40.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In terms of his home runs, TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year. His 24.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 125 games (+11.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 53% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+220/-300)
  TJ Friedl has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+6.05 Units / 76% ROI)