Explore the Game Breakdown: D-Backs vs Brewers Team Stats and Insights – 9/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to clash on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves locked in a tight National League matchup. The Brewers, holding an 88-66 record, have been enjoying a solid season, while the Diamondbacks, at 86-68, are also in the thick of the playoff race. With both teams eyeing postseason success, this game could have significant implications.

The Brewers will have Aaron Civale on the mound, a right-hander who has experienced an average season with a 4.48 ERA and a 7-8 record. Despite his struggles, Civale will look to navigate a potent Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in offense. Their power at the plate is evident with their 5th rank in home runs, which could pose a challenge given Civale’s high-flyball tendencies.

On the other side, Merrill Kelly takes the mound for Arizona. Kelly has been fortunate this year, as his 4.00 ERA is misleading compared to his 5.46 xERA, suggesting he may regress. His performance will be critical against a Brewers offense that ranks 9th in the league and boasts significant speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases.

The Brewers’ bullpen, ranked 9th in MLB Power Rankings, will be relied upon if Civale falters early. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks boast the top-ranked bullpen, providing some cushion for Kelly if his luck runs out.

Offensively, William Contreras has been on a tear for Milwaukee, hitting .429 with a 1.310 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk has been the standout for Arizona, boasting a .455 batting average and an impressive 1.682 OPS.

With both teams’ moneylines set at -110, the betting markets anticipate a tight contest. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 52% win probability, projecting them to score 4.67 runs. Contrarily, the Brewers are projected to score 4.27 runs, suggesting a close battle at American Family Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Merrill Kelly ranks in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ketel Marte has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Aaron Civale has used his cutter 5.9% less often this season (31.5%) than he did last year (37.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 151 games (+9.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 112 games (+26.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)