Phillies vs Marlins Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday September 08, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Phillies, with an impressive record of 85-57, are solidly positioned as one of the top contenders in the National League East, while the Marlins struggle at 53-89, having endured a disappointing season. The stakes are high for Philadelphia as they aim to maintain their playoff momentum.

In their last matchup, Philadelphia showcased their offensive firepower, bolstered by Kyle Schwarber’s remarkable performance. Over the last week, Schwarber has racked up 12 hits, including five home runs, and has driven in 11 RBIs, demonstrating why he’s been a key player for the Phillies. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ best hitter, Nick Fortes, has also been productive, but his contributions have not been enough to turn the tide for Miami.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Edward Cabrera, who has had an average year, currently ranked as the 104th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his high-groundball rate of 48%, Cabrera faces a daunting challenge against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 4th in the league. The projections indicate Cabrera may struggle, particularly against a lineup that excels at drawing walks—something Cabrera has had trouble with, boasting a 12.4 BB% this season.

The Phillies will counter with Seth Johnson, who has not fared well this season, being among the lowest-ranked pitchers. However, the matchup still favors Philadelphia, as their offense is firing on all cylinders, projected to score an average of 5.13 runs. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring affair. With the Marlins’ lineup ranking 29th in the league, they will need a significant turnaround to compete effectively in this contest.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Seth Johnson – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Seth Johnson has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 18.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.7) implies that Bryce Harper has been very fortunate this year with his 28.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Aramis Garcia, Weston Wilson, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Edward Cabrera’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (64.8% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jesus Sanchez has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 12.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+20.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)