Royals vs Pirates Game Highlights - Sunday, September 20, 2026

+100O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-120

Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Michael Wacha has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Jac Caglianone has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Lake Bachar ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Rafael Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
Despite posting a .358 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Rafael Flores has been lucky given the .057 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Spencer Horwitz has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
Brandon Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+7.20 Units / 180% ROI)

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