Game Time for Phillies vs Mets – 9/18/2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Alan Rangel – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Alan Rangel should be in good shape going up against 6 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under Total Bases
  Brandon Marsh has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Out of all starting pitchers, Zachary Thornton’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 19th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Morabito – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nick Morabito tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Alan Rangel.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.