
Cincinnati Reds
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Milwaukee Brewers
+175O/U: 9
(-105/-115)-205
(-105/-115)-205
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Brady Singer has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.5 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Elly De La Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 102.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cincinnati Reds – 2H MoneylineThe Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Shane Drohan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)The Cincinnati Reds have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Shane Drohan in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Jake Bauers has been lucky this year, putting up a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .050 discrepancy.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-205)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Cooper Pratt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Cooper Pratt has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
