Follow the Live Updates for Mets vs Marlins – 9/7/2026

New York Mets

@

Miami Marlins

New York Mets Insights

• Jonah Tong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jonah Tong’s high utilization rate of his fastball (53% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  A.J. Ewing has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Eury Perez’s 2680-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Griffin Conine stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.