
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Detroit Tigers
-155O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+135
(+100/-120)+135
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Tyler Glasnow has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Teoscar Hernández – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Teoscar Hernandez’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.7-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)Considering the 0.84 discrepancy between Framber Valdez’s 6.91 K/9 and his 7.75 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and should positively regress in future games.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Kevin McGonigle is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Colt Keith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Max Clark – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)Max Clark has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)
