Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Rays vs Orioles – Sunday August 23, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Martinez has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.3% less often this year (57%) than he did last season (62.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Shane Baz’s 95.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph fall off from last year’s 96.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Colton Cowser).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 away games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)