
Detroit Tigers
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Kansas City Royals
-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Drew Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Drew Anderson has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 10.26 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.70 — a 0.56 K/9 discrepancy.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Brett Callahan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Brett Callahan is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the best among every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jac Caglianone’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.3-mph now compared to just 89.4-mph then.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)In today’s matchup, Michael Massey is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38% rate (94th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
