Cardinals vs Phillies Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/22/2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Andre Pallante places him the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nathan Church – Over/Under Total Bases
  In the past 7 days, Nathan Church’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  JJ Wetherholt has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Andrew Painter has been unlucky this year, notching a 6.43 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.63 — a 1.8 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 78.3-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The 4th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.