Odds and Betting Tips for Cardinals vs Reds – 8/18/2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Kyle Leahy’s 2172-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 202-rpm fall off from last season’s 2374-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Joshua Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Joshua Baez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• St. Louis’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Throwing 93.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Andrew Abbott places in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.