Read the Game Recap for Marlins vs Braves – August 5th, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all SPs, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2670 rpm grades out in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Griffin Conine has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Generating 17.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Bryce Elder places in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Austin Riley has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 97-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 8.9% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves makes them the #5 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+11.20 Units / 56% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Joe Mack – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-175)
  Joe Mack has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.80 Units / 31% ROI)