Player Props Preview for Athletics vs Red Sox – 09 July 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox (49-40) and Oakland Athletics (34-58) gear up for their July 9, 2024, showdown at Fenway Park, the contrast between the two teams couldn’t be more stark. The Red Sox are having a strong season, sitting comfortably above .500, while the Athletics are struggling mightily. This American League matchup is the first game of a series, and both teams are looking to set the tone.

The Red Sox, fresh off a 3-0 shutout win against the Yankees on July 7, will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello, a right-handed pitcher, holds an 8-5 record this season, but his 5.19 ERA suggests some inconsistencies. However, his 3.87 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could be due for better outings. Bello’s high-groundball rate (54 GB%) might help neutralize the Athletics’ power-heavy offense, which ranks 6th in MLB in home runs.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with Joey Estes, who also pitches right-handed. Estes has a 3-3 record and a 4.39 ERA, which is more respectable but still leaves room for improvement. Despite pitching a remarkable complete game shutout on July 3, Estes has generally struggled this season. His low strikeout rate (19.0 K%) could be a disadvantage against the Red Sox’s high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in MLB.

Offensively, the Red Sox have the edge. They rank 8th overall in MLB, with notable strengths in batting average (#9), home runs (#10), and stolen bases (#6). Rafael Devers has been on fire recently, posting a .375 batting average and a 1.316 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Athletics’ offense ranks 25th in MLB, although Brent Rooker has been a standout performer, hitting .500 with a 1.510 OPS over the last week.

Bullpen-wise, the Athletics surprisingly hold the advantage, ranking 7th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, whereas the Red Sox bullpen lags at 26th. This could come into play if the game is close late.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox are big favorites with a projected win probability of 63%. With a strong offense and Bello’s potential for positive regression, Boston is well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Joey Estes has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his secondary offerings 15.9% more often this year (59%) than he did last season (43.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joey Estes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-205)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 51% ROI)