Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Mariners vs Rangers – Saturday, July 25, 2026

Seattle Mariners

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Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Generating 17.4 outs per GS this year on average, Bryan Woo checks in at the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cal Raleigh usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi has used his off-speed and breaking balls 6.9% more often this year (79.4%) than he did last year (72.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Ezequiel Duran is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Ezequiel Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)