In-depth Player Analysis for Rockies vs Brewers – Friday July 24, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Out of all starters, Tomoyuki Sugano’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 19th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Shane Drohan – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Shane Drohan has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Christian Yelich has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+25.00 Units / 278% ROI)