Analyze the Rockies vs Dodgers Game Analysis and Winning Probability - Tuesday, July 07, 2026

+260O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-310

Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
Michael Lorenzen has recorded 14.2 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
Kyle Karros has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Mickey Moniak pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Justin Wrobleski encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Today’s version of the Dodgers projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .340 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .351 overall projected rate.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-310)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (+130)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
Max Muncy has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.15 Units / 92% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics