Bets and Betting Tips for Cardinals vs Cubs – July 05, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Matthew Liberatore’s 2103-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 6th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Nathan Church, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Javier Assad has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 away games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-180)
  Ian Happ has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)