Rays vs Astros Picks and Betting Trends - 7/04/2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-110

Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.5% more often this year (51.3%) than he did last year (41.8%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
The Tampa Bay Rays (19.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Among all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Extreme groundball bats like Nick Allen tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 68% ROI)
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)

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