Player Props Analysis for Pirates vs Phillies - Thursday July 2nd, 2026

+110O/U: 10.5
(-110/-110)-130

Jared Jones – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Throwing 75.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Jared Jones ranks in the 7th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Harper as the 18th-best batter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Bryson Stott has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+3.95 Units / 7% ROI)
Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)
Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)

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