Pirates vs Phillies Betting Line and Odds – July 01, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Paul Skenes encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Despite posting a .380 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan Reynolds has been very fortunate given the .042 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Among all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball spin rate of 2438 rpm grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kyle Schwarber has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 20.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-215)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+11.70 Units / 76% ROI)